See where participant behavior becomes financial pressure.

A forward view of cancellation behavior, group cash flows, and reserve resilience for August 2026.

7 of 22 groups modeled in depthLCU · 24-month anchor

Data month

Published run 5F1C5433

Completed Aug 23, 2026, 2:53 PM

Observed

Portfolio participants

4,812

2,841 have full group-model coverage

Observed

Groups modeled

7 / 22

Coverage is disclosed in every ranking

Observed

Covered fund balance

LCU 10M

Closing balance across covered groups

Derived

Average health index

Illustrative policy index, not a probability

Forecast

High-risk queue

567

At least 10% next-month cancellation risk

ForecastPriority 01 · G-006

Early-tenure cancellation risk is eroding the group’s reserve buffer.

The model traces 46.9 expected next-month cancellations through lost contributions and refund pressure—then tests whether simulated cash remains above the configured reserve target.

Trace the financial impact Review methodology

Portfolio prioritization

Which group needs attention first?

Ranked first by 24-month reserve risk, then by the transparent health index. Partial model coverage is never extrapolated silently.

Rank	Group	Health index	Reserve breach · 24m	Expected cancellations	Reserve headroom	Open group
01	G-006 460 participants	watch · 46	100% Forecast	46.9 Next month	LCU -9.27K Observed	Open

Rank

Group

Health index

Reserve breach · 24m

Expected cancellations

Reserve headroom

G-006

460 participants

watch · 46

100%

Forecast

46.9

Next month

LCU -9.27K

Observed

Open

Participant evidence

Highest cancellation-risk participants

Forecast

17M-00617G-006 · 5 months · delinquent42%48M-10948G-006 · 5 months · delinquent

See where participant behavior becomes financial pressure.

Portfolio key indicators

Early-tenure cancellation risk is eroding the group’s reserve buffer.

Which group needs attention first?