Cancellation risk is concentrated early
146 early-tenure participants represent 35% of the active group and 67% of its high-cancellation-risk queue.
Rule risk-concentration-early-tenure-v1
Group intelligence · G-012
487 modeled participants · Data as of August 2026 · LCU
Analysis status succeeded. Scenario package base-plus-combined-stress-v1.
Evidence chain
The calculation is deterministic and versioned. Suggested actions are transparent rules and make no causal savings claim.
Behavior
Cash Flow
Reserve Risk
Management Action
Expected cancellations
Forecast27.7
Next-month participant expectation
Payment reliability
82.2%
Higher reading is better. Floor 40%; target 100%.
Allocation outflows
LCU -184.65K
Refund pressure
LCU -29.99K
Operating fees
LCU -9.35K
Closing balance
LCU 1.55M
Opening + contributions − allocations − refunds − fees = closing. Values reconcile exactly before display rounding.
Cancellation risk