Run 5F1C5433markoviq-analysis-demo-v1

Methodology & Lineage

Every result should be reproducible and challengeable.

MarkovIQ separates observed data, deterministic derivations, forecasts, and scenarios—then records the data vintage, model, configuration, assumptions, seed, and output checksum.

Data August 2026Forecast view: Combined stress · 24mRun 5F1C5433

markoviq-analysis-demo-v1Open run details

Synthetic demonstration limitations

Synthetic demonstration only. No client data. Forecasts, thresholds, financial impacts, and suggested actions are illustrative and must not be used for participant or fund-management decisions.

Analytical flow

Behavior → Cash Flow → Reserve Risk → Management Action

Behavior

Participant state probabilities and drivers

Cash Flow

Contributions, refunds, allocations, and fees

Reserve Risk

Cash paths against the configured reserve target

Management Action

Candidate response with evidence and constraints

Participant state model

Payment state is separate from allocation status.

Current

The required payment is current for the observed month.

Delinquent

One or more expected payments remain unpaid.

Cancelled

Participation has ended; terminal for this demonstration engine.

Default

The configured default condition has been reached; terminal here.

Completed

The participant has reached the contractual plan end.

Cure is a Delinquent → Current transition plus a recent-cure attribute. It is not a persistent mutually exclusive state. Advance payments are behavioral evidence; market-specific bid mechanics are deferred.

Metric definitions

Similar-looking measures keep different meanings.

High-risk participant

A non-terminal modeled participant with at least 10% next-month cancellation probability.

Health index

A 0–100 policy composite using the selected versioned weights, floors, targets, and directions.

Reserve coverage

Expected group balance divided by the configured reserve target for the stated horizon.

Illustrative health index

A transparent policy index, interpreted separately from reserve risk.

Each reading is normalized from 0 to 100 between its floor and target, capped, weighted, and summed. Higher-is-better and lower-is-better factors use opposite directions. The index includes a projected reserve-coverage factor, while reserve-pressure probability remains a direct probability of a defined cash event.

Factor	Weight	Floor	Target	Direction	Source
Projected reserve coverage	40%	50%	150%	Higher is better	Expected balance divided by the configured reserve target over the next six months.
Payment reliability	30%	40%	100%	Higher is better	Expected next-month Current share among non-terminal participants.
Cancellation and default	20%	10%	2%	Lower is better	Observed trailing three-month cancellation and default event rate.
Projected cure rate	10%	20%	70%	Higher is better	Expected Delinquent-to-Current transitions divided by the as-of delinquent population.

Healthy ≥ 70

Combined stress scenario v1

Assumptions, not hidden switches

Cancellation+20%

Delinquency+15%

Obligations+10%

Advance-payment participation−15%

Observed

Directly read from the synthetic monthly snapshot.

Derived

Calculated deterministically from observed inputs.

Forecast

Expected value or fixed-seed simulation output.

Scenario

Run ID

5f1c5433-c5ca-422f-9e7a-50a8decda472

Data vintage

2026-08-01

Dataset

Synthetic monthly portfolio through August 2026

Model

markoviq-analysis-demo-v1

Health config

group-health-demo-v1

Scenario

base-plus-combined-stress-v1

Run input hash

C027D6CB502290BED7

Random seed

20260820

Model checksum

6A3E131A87533B9D53

Policy checksum

9187F2399A4035F378

Input hash

21015171D0B346C832

Output checksum

FB970D82059B3793F9