Challenge the baseline with disclosed assumptions.

Compare the published baseline with a named scenario projection. Scenario results are conditional analyses, not observed outcomes or baseline predictions.

Review candidate actions

G-006Data August 2026Forecast view: Combined stress · 24mRun 5F1C5433

markoviq-analysis-demo-v1Open run details

Scenario scope

Select a modeled group

G-006 G-003 G-009 G-014 G-012 G-017 G-021

Baseline reserve pressure · 24m

100%

Published baseline forecast

Stress reserve pressure · 24m

100%

Scenario-conditioned projection

Scenario pressure delta

+0%

Stress minus baseline at the selected horizon

Scenario comparison

Expected cash path, uncertainty range, and reserve target

ScenarioFixed-seed simulation · 24 months

Expected balance and reserve threshold

Combined stress monthly cash forecast through month 24
Month	Expected balance	10th percentile balance	90th percentile balance	Reserve target	Reserve-pressure probability
Month 1	LCU 1,046,971	LCU 1,022,522	LCU 1,071,202	LCU 1,089,710	100%
Month 2	LCU 937,917	LCU 907,502	LCU 969,011	LCU 915,937	100%
Month 3	LCU 852,979	LCU 816,512	LCU 887,285	LCU 778,834	100%
Month 4	LCU 785,763	LCU 748,444	LCU 822,693	LCU 669,333	100%
Month 5	LCU 728,174	LCU 692,400	LCU 767,543	LCU 575,618	100%
Month 6	LCU 678,909	LCU 644,996	LCU 717,729	LCU 495,250	100%
Month 7	LCU 638,279	LCU 605,198	LCU 682,432	LCU 428,583	100%
Month 8	LCU 602,311	LCU 568,124	LCU 640,829	LCU 372,894	100%
Month 9	LCU 569,464	LCU 530,672	LCU 609,298	LCU 345,085	100%
Month 10	LCU 534,753	LCU 492,436	LCU 581,325	LCU 340,541	100%
Month 11	LCU 499,488	LCU 453,185	LCU 550,506	LCU 340,872	100%
Month 12	LCU 463,442	LCU 415,957	LCU 514,965	LCU 341,384	100%
Month 13	LCU 425,805	LCU 375,364	LCU 482,960	LCU 341,896	100%
Month 14	LCU 387,232	LCU 333,693	LCU 446,037	LCU 342,409	100%
Month 15	LCU 348,471	LCU 293,325	LCU 408,138	LCU 342,922	100%
Month 16	LCU 309,083	LCU 253,842	LCU 368,608	LCU 343,437	100%
Month 17	LCU 268,743	LCU 212,847	LCU 328,186	LCU 343,952	100%
Month 18	LCU 228,023	LCU 172,305	LCU 291,756	LCU 344,468	100%
Month 19	LCU 186,998	LCU 129,251	LCU 249,582	LCU 344,984	100%
Month 20	LCU 145,269	LCU 85,649	LCU 206,573	LCU 345,502	100%
Month 21	LCU 103,222	LCU 42,426	LCU 164,474	LCU 346,020	100%
Month 22	LCU 60,764	LCU -73	LCU 122,104	LCU 346,539	100%
Month 23	LCU 17,749	LCU -45,449	LCU 79,103	LCU 347,059	100%
Month 24	LCU -25,452	LCU -92,068	LCU 39,836	LCU 347,580	100%

Expected balance · M24

LCU -25.45K

Reserve-pressure probability

100%

Cumulative expected exits

449.2

Combined stress scenario

Cancellation +20% · Delinquency +15% · Obligations +10% · Advance-payment participation −15%. These are illustrative, versioned scenario inputs—not a baseline forecast.

Disclosed assumptions

Cancellation transition intensity +20%

Delinquency transition intensity +15%

Allocation and other obligations +10%

Advance-payment participation −15%

How to read the result

Reserve-pressure probability is the share of fixed-seed simulated paths that fall below the configured reserve target at least once by month 24.

Expected balance at the selected horizon is LCU -25.45K. Breach timing is intentionally not reduced to an ambiguous “first expected breach” label.