Executive portfolio intelligence
A forward view of cancellation behavior, group cash flows, and reserve pressure for August 2026.
Analysis status succeeded. Scenario package base-plus-combined-stress-v1.
Analytical chain
Behavior
Cash Flow
Reserve Risk
Management Action
The model traces 46.9 expected next-month cancellations through lost contributions and refund pressure—then tests whether simulated cash remains above the configured reserve target.
Management action
Candidate responses are decision support. Each one opens the evidence, affected cohort, uncertainty, and monitoring measure before a human decision is made.
Inspect the priority cohort and the predictive evidence behind each flag.
Open evidence02Compare the published forecast with the named combined-stress scenario.
Open evidence03See the evidence, constraints, target cohort, and measure to monitor.
Open evidencePortfolio prioritization
Ranked first by baseline 24-month reserve pressure, then by the transparent health index. Partial model coverage is never extrapolated silently.
| Rank | Group | Health index | Base reserve pressure · 24m | Expected cancellations | Reserve headroom | Open group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | G-006 460 participants | watch · 46 | 100% Forecast | 46.9 Next month | LCU -9.27K Observed | Open |
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Coverage is disclosed in every ranking
Baseline reserve-pressure probability · 24m
100%
Fixed-seed Monte Carlo forecast
Current reserve headroom
LCU -9.27K
Observed balance minus reserve target
| 02 | G-003 248 participants | healthy · 72 | 0% Forecast | 7.1 Next month | +LCU 98.04K Observed | Open |
| 03 | G-009 512 participants | healthy · 74 | 0% Forecast | 43.1 Next month | +LCU 428.23K Observed | Open |
| 04 | G-014 438 participants | healthy · 81 | 0% Forecast | 24.3 Next month | +LCU 617.95K Observed | Open |
| 05 | G-012 487 participants | healthy · 85 | 0% Forecast | 27.7 Next month | +LCU 445.7K Observed | Open |
| 06 | G-017 395 participants | healthy · 86 | 0% Forecast | 15.2 Next month | +LCU 534.19K Observed | Open |
| 07 | G-021 301 participants | healthy · 86 | 0% Forecast | 8.2 Next month | +LCU 247.5K Observed | Open |