Executive portfolio intelligence
A forward view of cancellation behavior, group cash flows, and reserve pressure for March 2026.
Analysis status succeeded. Scenario package base-plus-combined-stress-v1.
Analytical chain
Behavior
Cash Flow
Reserve Risk
Management Action
The model traces 11.0 expected next-month cancellations through lost contributions and refund pressure—then tests whether simulated cash remains above the configured reserve target.
Management action
Candidate responses are decision support. Each one opens the evidence, affected cohort, uncertainty, and monitoring measure before a human decision is made.
Inspect the priority cohort and the predictive evidence behind each flag.
Open evidence02Compare the published forecast with the named combined-stress scenario.
Open evidence03See the evidence, constraints, target cohort, and measure to monitor.
Open evidencePortfolio prioritization
Ranked first by baseline 24-month reserve pressure, then by the transparent health index. Partial model coverage is never extrapolated silently.
| Rank | Group | Health index | Base reserve pressure · 24m | Expected cancellations | Reserve headroom | Open group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | G-006 96 participants | watch · 68 | 0% Forecast | 11.0 Next month | +LCU 11.25K Observed | Open |
7 / 22
Coverage is disclosed in every ranking
Baseline reserve-pressure probability · 24m
0%
Fixed-seed Monte Carlo forecast
Current reserve headroom
+LCU 11.25K
Observed balance minus reserve target
| 02 | G-003 228 participants | healthy · 73 | 0% Forecast | 8.8 Next month | +LCU 106.59K Observed | Open |
| 03 | G-009 289 participants | healthy · 76 | 0% Forecast | 33.2 Next month | +LCU 461.72K Observed | Open |
| 04 | G-014 351 participants | healthy · 81 | 0% Forecast | 27.3 Next month | +LCU 562.3K Observed | Open |
| 05 | G-012 351 participants | healthy · 84 | 0% Forecast | 27.1 Next month | +LCU 442.43K Observed | Open |
| 06 | G-017 346 participants | healthy · 84 | 0% Forecast | 15.2 Next month | +LCU 469.65K Observed | Open |
| 07 | G-021 279 participants | healthy · 85 | 0% Forecast | 10.6 Next month | +LCU 237.75K Observed | Open |