Executive portfolio intelligence
A forward view of cancellation behavior, group cash flows, and reserve pressure for July 2026.
Analysis status succeeded. Scenario package base-plus-combined-stress-v1.
Analytical chain
Behavior
Cash Flow
Reserve Risk
Management Action
The model traces 41.4 expected next-month cancellations through lost contributions and refund pressure—then tests whether simulated cash remains above the configured reserve target.
Management action
Candidate responses are decision support. Each one opens the evidence, affected cohort, uncertainty, and monitoring measure before a human decision is made.
Inspect the priority cohort and the predictive evidence behind each flag.
Open evidence02Compare the published forecast with the named combined-stress scenario.
Open evidence03See the evidence, constraints, target cohort, and measure to monitor.
Open evidencePortfolio prioritization
Ranked first by baseline 24-month reserve pressure, then by the transparent health index. Partial model coverage is never extrapolated silently.
| Rank | Group | Health index | Base reserve pressure · 24m | Expected cancellations | Reserve headroom | Open group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | G-006 392 participants | watch · 43 | 100% Forecast | 41.4 Next month | LCU -16.2K Observed | Open |
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Coverage is disclosed in every ranking
Baseline reserve-pressure probability · 24m
100%
Fixed-seed Monte Carlo forecast
Current reserve headroom
LCU -16.2K
Observed balance minus reserve target
| 02 | G-009 464 participants | healthy · 71 | 0% Forecast | 39.4 Next month | +LCU 424.14K Observed | Open |
| 03 | G-003 245 participants | healthy · 74 | 0% Forecast | 7.3 Next month | +LCU 102.01K Observed | Open |
| 04 | G-014 418 participants | healthy · 81 | 0% Forecast | 24.1 Next month | +LCU 624.22K Observed | Open |
| 05 | G-012 468 participants | healthy · 85 | 0% Forecast | 29.8 Next month | +LCU 452.58K Observed | Open |
| 06 | G-017 385 participants | healthy · 85 | 0% Forecast | 14.8 Next month | +LCU 501.34K Observed | Open |
| 07 | G-021 296 participants | healthy · 87 | 0% Forecast | 8.0 Next month | +LCU 261.27K Observed | Open |