Cancellation risk is concentrated early
100 early-tenure participants represent 26% of the active group and 50% of its high-cancellation-risk queue.
Rule risk-concentration-early-tenure-v1
Group intelligence · G-014
438 modeled participants · Data as of August 2026 · LCU
Evidence chain
The calculation is deterministic and versioned. Suggested actions are transparent rules and make no causal savings claim.
Behavior
24.3 expected cancellations
Participant-level forecast
Propagation
Lost contributions + refunds
Expected cash-flow effect
Financial risk
0% reserve probability
24-month base case
Expected cancellations
Forecast24.3
Next-month participant expectation
Action
Review the high-risk queue
Policy-compliant suggestion
Allocation outflows
LCU -154.71K
Refund pressure
LCU -21.25K
Operating fees
LCU -8.25K
Closing balance
LCU 2.14M
Opening + contributions − allocations − refunds − fees = closing. Values reconcile exactly before display rounding.