Cancellation risk is concentrated early
55 early-tenure participants represent 15% of the active group and 43% of its high-cancellation-risk queue.
Rule risk-concentration-early-tenure-v1
Group intelligence · G-017
395 modeled participants · Data as of August 2026 · LCU
Evidence chain
The calculation is deterministic and versioned. Suggested actions are transparent rules and make no causal savings claim.
Behavior
15.2 expected cancellations
Participant-level forecast
Propagation
Lost contributions + refunds
Expected cash-flow effect
Financial risk
0% reserve probability
24-month base case
Expected cancellations
Forecast15.2
Next-month participant expectation
Action
Review the high-risk queue
Policy-compliant suggestion
Allocation outflows
LCU -153.48K
Refund pressure
LCU -12.22K
Operating fees
LCU -7.97K
Closing balance
LCU 1.87M
Opening + contributions − allocations − refunds − fees = closing. Values reconcile exactly before display rounding.