Run 5F1C5433markoviq-analysis-demo-v1

Methodology & lineage

Every result should be reproducible and challengeable.

MarkovIQ separates observed data, deterministic derivations, forecasts, and scenarios—then records the data vintage, model, configuration, assumptions, seed, and output checksum.

Synthetic demonstration limitations

Synthetic demonstration only. No client data. Forecasts, thresholds, financial impacts, and suggested actions are illustrative and must not be used for participant or fund-management decisions.

Analytical flow

Behavior → Cash Flow → Risk → Action

Participant behavior

Transparent probability

Expected states

Group aggregation

Cash & reserves

Fixed-seed simulation

Management action

Rule with evidence

Participant state model

Payment state is separate from allocation status.

Current

The required payment is current for the observed month.

Delinquent

One or more expected payments remain unpaid.

Cancelled

Participation has ended; terminal for this demonstration engine.

Default

The configured default condition has been reached; terminal here.

Completed

The participant has reached the contractual plan end.

Cure is a Delinquent → Current transition plus a recent-cure attribute. It is not a persistent mutually exclusive state. Advance payments are behavioral evidence; market-specific bid mechanics are deferred.

Illustrative health index

A transparent policy index, kept distinct from reserve risk.

Each reading is normalized from 0 to 100 between its floor and target, capped, weighted, and summed. Higher-is-better and lower-is-better factors use opposite directions.

Factor	Weight	Floor	Target	Direction	Source
Projected reserve coverage	40%	50%	150%	Higher is better	Expected balance divided by the configured reserve target over the next six months.
Payment reliability	30%	40%	100%	Higher is better	Expected next-month Current share among non-terminal participants.
Cancellation and default	20%	10%	2%	Lower is better	Observed trailing three-month cancellation and default event rate.
Projected cure rate	10%	20%	70%	Higher is better	Expected Delinquent-to-Current transitions divided by the as-of delinquent population.

Healthy ≥ 70

Combined stress v1

Assumptions, not hidden switches

Cancellation+20%

Delinquency+15%

Obligations+10%

Advance-payment participation−15%

Observed

Directly read from the synthetic monthly snapshot.

Derived

Calculated deterministically from observed inputs.

Forecast

Expected value or fixed-seed simulation output.

Scenario

Run ID

5f1c5433-c5ca-422f-9e7a-50a8decda472

Data vintage

2026-08-01

Dataset

Synthetic monthly portfolio through August 2026

Model

markoviq-analysis-demo-v1

Health config

group-health-demo-v1

Scenario

base-plus-combined-stress-v1

Input hash

21015171D0B346C832

Output checksum

FB970D82059B3793F9