M-12568

Explainable next-month outcome distribution and its expected contribution to group cash-flow pressure.

View group financial path

Forecast

Cancellation risk

32.1%

Illustrative next-month probability

Derived

Outcome distribution

What may happen next month?

Forecast

Current / cured10.2%

Delinquent48.3%

Cancelled32.1%

Payment history

Observed amount due versus paid

Observed

Amount dueAmount paid

Evidence vintage

August 2026 · markoviq-analysis-demo-v1 · Run 5F1C5433

Synthetic demonstration only

Directional evidence

Why is cancellation risk 32.1%?

Derived

Currently delinquent

+24.6 pp

7 missed cycles · Current payment state

Source: payment_state,delinquency_streak

Developing tenure

+10.7 pp

11 months · Portfolio reference: more than 12 months

Source: tenure_months

Credit score band

+9.5 pp

618 · Portfolio reference: 660–719

Source: credit_score

Income index

+7.1 pp

0.79× · Portfolio reference: 1.00×

Source: income_index_bps

No advance payments

+5.2 pp

0 · Portfolio reference: 1 or more

Source: advance_payments

Contributions are probability-point effects within this transparent illustrative model. They describe association, not the causal effect of an intervention.

Expected contribution exposure · 24m

LCU 4.12K

Expected refund pressure

LCU 1.12K

Group reserve-breach probability

All modeled participants combined

Exposure values are probability-weighted scenario calculations, not predicted or preventable savings.